Wednesday, November 6

To all Mommsies in Cebu and Central Visayas, let's pray and prepare!

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON HAIYAN UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 06 November 2013
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday 06 November 2013

HAIYAN approaching Super Typhoon (STY) status as it rapidly gained strength due to the emergence of a pinhole-sized eye a few hours ago...now poses a serious threat to Eastern Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao. The initial potential landfall area of this typhoon remains along the Samar-Leyte Area on Friday morning, November 08.

This typhoon is similar in track and strength of Super Typhoon MIKE (RUPING) which passed across the Visayas in November of 1991 and devastated much of Metro Cebu. Residents living along the eastern seaboards of the Philippines from Northern Quezon...Bicol Region...down to Northeastern Mindanao should closely monitor the approach of this potentially destructive typhoon. Plans for emergency situations and/or disaster management planning must be implemented beginning today as the storm is only 3 days away from hitting land.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 30W (WILMA) has accelerated and is approaching the coast of Southern Vietnam. As of 5:00 am today, its center was estimated about 385 km ESE of Nha Trang, Vietnam (near 11.8N 112.7E). With maximum winds of 55 kph near the center and was moving westward at 31 kph in the general direction of Southern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Haiyan.

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the pin-hole eye of TY Haiyan was located over the western part of the Caroline Islands...about 335 km southeast of Colonia, Yap (FSM) or 1,690 km southeast of Borongan City, Samar, Philippines...currently moving quickly west-northwest with an accelerated forward speed of 35 km/hr towards Yap-Palau Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 205 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers from the center. TY Haiyan remains a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Haiyan is expected to move in a generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TY Haiyan will passing in between the islands of Yap and Palau by Wednesday afternoon and evening...and will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the early morning hours of Thursday...and move across the South Philippine Sea. By early Friday morning, Haiyan will be at near landfall, approaching the shores of Southern Samar and Eastern Leyte.

TY Haiyan will continue to rapidly intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours as the system moves over the warmer sea surface temperatures of the Philippine Sea...and could become an extremely dangerous Category 5 STY on Thursday early morning just before it makes landfall. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 260 km/hr between the evening ofWednesday and early Thursday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Enters the P.A.R. at Category 4 strength while passing close to the Republic of Palau...moving over the South Philippine Sea...about 160 km north-northeast of Koror, Palau[2AM NOV 07: 8.7N 134.9E @ 250kph].

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to a Category 5 STY as it prepares to make landfall over Southern Samar...about 290 km southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM NOV 08: 10.7N 127.9E @ 260kph].

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving across Mindoro Strait after traversing Northern Visayas...weakens to Category 4...about 60 km north-northeast of Coron, Palawan [2AM NOV 09: 12.5N 120.4E @ 215kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

PIN-HOLE EYE - over water. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 be="" expected="" eye="" i="" inside="" kph="" nbsp="" the="" will="" winds="">(click here to know more about the EYE).

EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (click here to know more about the Eyewall).

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None.

OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Yap State (Federated States of Micronesia) and approaching the Republic of Palau (click here to know more about Rainbands).

24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 210 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Haiyan.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Nov 06, 2013
Class/Name: TY Haiyan (31W)
Location of Eye: Near 7.3º N Lat 140.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km SE of Yap State
Distance 2: 575 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 630 km E of Republic of Palau
Distance 4: 1690 km SE of Borongan City
Distance 5: 1725 km ESE of Tacloban City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: WNW @ 35 kph
Towards: Yap-Palau Area
CPA [ETA] to Samar-Leyte: Friday Morning [between 7AM-9AM PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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